Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Winner After Group Stage Concludes

France head the betting to win the 2026 World Cup on Sunday July 19. Meanwhile, France bring Championship pedigree, combining 2018 winners Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele with a new generation led by Michael Olise, Desire Doue and Rayan Cherki. France appear primed for another title push, led by the world’s top goal scorer Kylian Mbappe and reigning Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele. Throw in guys like William Saliba and Michael Olise, among others, and it’s hard not to like this group. Belgium should control this group, but the remaining positions are harder to predict.

According to the Opta supercomputer, there are six other teams who should go into the tournament with strong hopes of going all the way. The supercomputer believes Spain have a chance to ease into the tournament, as they topped Group H in a massive 75.3% of sims, with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde representing a reasonably kind draw. Cape Verde have qualified for the first time and are among 10 countries from Africa, while the three co-hosts make up half of six teams from the CONCACAF region. U.S. President Donald Trump and FIFA chief Gianni Infantino will present the winning country with the trophy in East Rutherford, New Jersey when the competition concludes with the World Cup final on 19 July. Argentina won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, defeating France in a breathtaking final that ended 3-3 after extra time before the Albiceleste won on penalties.

The favoured teams, however, are France and Spain, with England deemed to have a strong chance as well. France will pursue a third straight final and third title overall, while past winners Spain enter as European champions. It was Spain’s victory over England in the Euro 2024 final that heralded the end of Gareth Southgate’s time leading the Three Lions, ushering in Thomas Tuchel’s reign.

Who Will Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? The Opta Supercomputer Predictions

But Spain’s quality is highlighted by being the only team rated as more likely than not to reach the quarter-finals, which they did 52.1% of the time. The Sporting News is tracking the favourites to win and best betting offers including 50/1 for a goal to be scored in England vs. Congo and 40/1 for Harry Kane to have a shot in the match. This final comes down to France’s athleticism, depth and physical dominance against Portugal’s control of possession and tempo.

• Die Mannschaft actually locked horns with Paraguay in the last-16 stage of the 2002 World Cup, recording a 1-0 victory courtesy of a late effort from Oliver Neuville.
• The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage continues on Monday with three more round of 32 ties, as Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands bid to join Canada in the last 16 of the tournament.
• Colombia were not even at the last World Cup but are a team to watch out for this time.
• Norway are the dark horse, and Lionel Messi heads the Golden Boot race after becoming the World Cup’s all-time top scorer.
• But Memphis Depay remains a talisman for his nation, becoming their all-time leading scorer when he netted his 51st international goal in September.
• Should the United States advance to the Round of 16, it’s going to take some of their best performances of the past decade, maybe ever.
• Veteran Ghana coach Carlos Queiroz knows how to navigate World Cup ties as an underdog.
• Les Éléphants have reached the World Cup knockout stages for the first time in their history after finishing second in Group E behind Germany on goal difference.
• Outright odds for the World Cup are decided based on numerous factors and considerations from bookmakers, such as team strength, form through qualifiers, performance against big nations, among other things.
• In terms of pressing, I have the feeling the Atlas Lions can really trouble the Dutch.
• The 2026 World Cup is co-hosted by the United States (11 venues), Mexico (3 venues), and Canada (2 venues) across 16 stadiums.
• France, with their deeper, lavishly gifted squad, can gain revenge as the fresher of the two over this slog of a tournament.
• The issue for both is they will first have to negotiate their way through difficult groups and, if they don’t finish top in the initial stage, that could hinder them with a tougher path to the final.
• All completed World Cup 2026 predictions remain fully visible — review our track record anytime.
• With the Round of 32 underway and this 48-team field wide open, we will update these picks after every round.
• The World Cup 2026 bracket has handed them what looks on paper like their most straightforward possible knockout assignment, and they enter this match having conceded just once in three competitive fixtures at the tournament.

Saturday, June 20

DR Congo clinched its first-ever spot in the World Cup knockout stage, and with that, the nation was rewarded with England. Three Lions have had a tumultuous and injury-riddled group stage, but Thomas Tuchel’s squad should still come out on top. Argentina enter the tournament as defending champions, four years on from Lionel Messi’s long-awaited crowning moment, and as the all-time great prepares for his last dance on this stage. Stephen Eustaquio’s late goal sparked jubilant celebrations among the co-hosts, with head coach Jesse Marsch telling his players they had become “Canadian heroes” and inspired the next generation of footballers.

Spain: 17.0%

Panama are given just an 8.9 percent chance of recording their first-ever World Cup victory, while the probability of them earning a maiden World Cup point stands at 12.6 percent. Six World Cup games, knockout places on the line, Cape Verde make history and Iran wait for a place in the Round of 32. With FIFA World Cup betting, it is key not to make silly mistakes which can immediately harm your chances of placing winning bets. England are another nation with a strong squad, and they will be seeking to avenge their heartache in recent major competitions where they have fallen at the final hurdle or close to it. A total of 18 spots are earnt for these three different qualification processes in Asia (AFC), Africa (CAF) and Oceania (OFC).

Group A is a difficult group, with three teams capable of advancing. Czechia holds a narrow edge thanks to their combination of veterans like Tomas Soucek and Patrik Schick, as well as somewhat newcomers in Ladislav Krejci and Pavel Sulc. Mexico’s consistency makes them a reliable choice, as well as playing at home, while South Korea’s speed can be dangerous on the counterattack. South Africa faces the steepest challenge in this group and seems unlikely to get past their first three games.

• Anyway, the evidence thus far is that Mbappe scores goals in World Cups.
• Cape Verde (0.1%) have qualified and are the second-smallest nation by population (after Iceland in 2018) to achieve the feat.
• Pink boots have also become one of the biggest trends at the tournament.
• That places significant responsibility on Joao Pedro, who has impressed at Chelsea, but it remains uncertain whether that will be enough, or even if he’s locked into the XI.
• This version of Morocco has the tools to be more proactive against France, but that can be a double-edged sword, facing Les Bleus’ phenomenal attack.
• The group-stage achievements are genuine, but their attacking output of two goals in three competitive matches underlines the challenge ahead.
• Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo is already the only man to score at five World Cups, as the 41-year-old strives for the one major international trophy that has eluded him.
• During World Cup qualification, you may notice that certain teams have already qualified for the main tournament which may mean that they use some squad players or experiment with their lineup.
• Along with the Gold Cup run, a 5-1 win over Uruguay last time out put Pochettino’s critics on notice, and the USA should feel good about their chances of being competitive in the knockout stages.
• Sixteen venues across the United States, Canada and Mexico will play host to the biggest-ever edition of the tournament, with the number of teams increasing from 32 and 48 and the tally of games upped from 64 to 104.

Canada vs. Morocco

The 2026 World Cup will be the first tournament to feature 48 teams, expanding from the traditional 32-team format used from 1998 through 2022. This change significantly alters both the group stage and the knockout bracket. In addition to co-hosts Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Qatar will also be vying for a top-two spot in this group, with all three nations seeking a maiden knockout appearance on the grandest international stage. 1960Tips.com has been the trusted destination for free football predictions, expert VIP picks, and sports betting analysis since 2017. Established in the UK — serving a global audience across Africa, Asia, and beyond. Group-by-group odds, knockout stage forecasts, and tapados watch — all powered by FIFA rankings, ELO ratings, and past tournament performance.

England: 11.8%

Whether you want to forecast the whole tournament, compete with friends, or just watch the games — we’ve got you covered. The last time that happened, between Argentina and West Germany in 1990, the European nation gained its revenge. France can power clear as Argentina’s exertions against Portugal and Brazil catch up with them, and Messi runs out of fairy-tales. The Netherlands have been in free-scoring form so far, plundering 10 in Group F. Ronald Koeman’s men are yet to keep a clean sheet, though, and Morocco’s vibrant attack will play fearlessly as they have all tournament. Jesse Marsch’s co-hosts missed out on top spot in Group B after defeat to Switzerland and must decamp to L.A.

He just scores goals – 61 of them to be precise this season – and this summer he looks to be heading into the tournament in peak physical condition. He finally has that winning feeling at Bayern and maybe, just maybe, he’s ready to fire England to glory too. Anchored by a veteran Casemiro, who can cap off a trophy-laden career with the holy grail of international football. At the back, a Champions League final defensive duo of Gabriel and Marquinhos will be difficult to top throughout the tournament. Uzbekistan came out on top in 26.8 percent of simulations, while the draw was rated at 24.3 percent, leaving the Central Asian side with an outside chance of reaching the Round of 32. Both sides are still chasing a place in the knockout stage, with DR Congo also seeking their first-ever World Cup victory after drawing with Portugal and narrowly losing to Colombia.

Two of the all-time greats are poised to be the first men to play in six World Cups. Argentina’s Lionel Messi, who turns 39 on June 24, won the Golden Ball as the best player at the 2022 tournament, tallying seven goals and three assists. Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo is already the only man to score at five World Cups, as the 41-year-old strives for the one major international trophy that has eluded him.

Part I. Team and group ratings ⚽

England finished with eight wins – and eight clean sheets – from as many matches in qualifying, becoming only the second team ever to win all their games in a UEFA campaign without conceding, after Yugoslavia in 1954. Among La Liga players, only Kylian Mbappé (48) had more goal involvements in all competitions this season than the winger’s 41 (24 goals and 17 assists). Teams will battle it out to emerge from 12 different groups and reach a knockout stage that now features a round of 32 – a new addition at international football’s showpiece event. France are the big favourites to win the World Cup ahead of Argentina, with Spain and England the only others given a greater than 10% chance at current odds. Brazil come next after beating Japan and Portugal are just outside the top five, while Mexico and Morocco are the big market movers at 28/1.

What are the predictions for Panama vs England?

The match result market is heavily skewed toward Argentina, who are available at the best price of 1/6 across nine leading operators. Cape Verde are a 19/1 shot to cause one of the tournament’s great upsets. The draw is priced at 15/2, reflecting just how unlikely a stalemate is given the gap in class between these two sides.

A lack of recent match practice against top-class European opponents could count against the Albiceleste, who also saw Ángel Di María retire from international football after the Copa América. Messi also led all players in Qatar for shots (32), chances created from open play (17) and fouls won (22), becoming the second player to top all three metrics at a single World Cup. Maradona in 1986 (30 shots, 19 open-play chances created, 53 fouls won). Southgate’s England teams were also solid at the back but rarely free-flowing. At Euro 2024, they recorded just 5.4 xG – Turkey, Austria and Switzerland were among the teams to better that tally. Tuchel’s task is simple – get international football’s nearly men over the line.

• Germany are given a 54.7 percent chance of winning inside 90 minutes, while Paraguay’s chances stand at 23.1 percent.
• Messi (13) is one goal ahead of Mbappé, who will surely take possession of the record eventually.
• Few nations in football history have possessed such an embarrassment of attacking riches.
• At age 40, Croatia’s Luka Modrić will be back for a fifth World Cup, assuming he recovers from cheekbone surgery in time.
• Mikel Oyarzabal and Mikel Merino were among Spain’s star performers in qualifying.
• With Messi drawing defensive attention and Julian Alvarez providing the running, Martinez is regularly afforded space inside the area and is one of the most reliable penalty-box finishers in this Argentina squad.
• They conceded just eight goals across their last 16 World Cup qualifying matches, shutting out both Brazil and Argentina along the way.
• No team has greater odds of reaching the round of 16 than Argentina.
• The Netherlands enter as a world‑class side looking to make a statement.
• The 2026 World Cup is the first men’s World Cup in the United States since the 1994 tournament, and it’ll be unlike any World Cup ever played.

From the greatest individual rivalry of the 21st century to the greatest international soccer rivalry of all time. Even if Brazil have improved as expected under Ancelotti, they are a rung below their great foes at present. Haaland’s father’s generation (Alfie actually didn’t play at the tournament in question) claimed a famous group-stage win over Brazil at France ’98.

Cape Verde’s dream debut is not over yet

With Messi complemented by two high-profile strikers still in their prime, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Alvarez, Argentina should not be short of goals. The striker is already the record goalscorer for England and has remained a pivotal figure for Tuchel, under whom the early returns have been strong. A rampant Kane scored an astonishing 61 club goals across all competitions (64 if you also include the Club World Cup) and finished the season in fine style with two consecutive hat-tricks.

Colombia have not conceded in their past two matches and had the better of their goalless draw against Portugal. Nestor Lorenzo’s team look a little more battle hardened and should edge through. Canada reached the men’s World Cup last 16 for the first time after a dramatic stoppage-time victory over South Africa, marking the nation’s first knockout win at the tournament. Historically, the Netherlands have enjoyed a strong record against African opposition at the World Cup. They are unbeaten in six such matches, scoring at least twice in each of their victories.

Get FREE daily news and in-depth previews for games from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football — straight to your inbox. Morocco have never won the World Cup, but they did reach the semi-finals of the 2022 tournament, which represented their best-ever run in the competition. Morocco, meanwhile, picked up seven points from their three games in Group C to finish second, only behind Brazil on goal difference. Of the teams in the bottom quarter of our projections, there are a few standout nations who the system thinks could spring a surprise. Just one shock exit from a tournament favourite can cause other dominos to fall and the draw can suddenly open up for an unexpected team to challenge.

France have stumbled before, most notably conceding three goals in the 2022 final. With history on the line, I see France growing complacent, allowing Portugal to seize the moment with a historic 1–0 victory, ending Cristiano Ronaldo’s legendary career with ultimate glory. England’s talent makes them a serious contender, but I’m backing Croatia to finish first based on their recent World Cup success under Luka Modric. England’s game control and defense will be hard to beat, but scoring on bigger stages has always been iffy. Then again, Harry Kane scored freely across Bundesliga and Champions League this season, at times playing in a deeper role than usual.

⚽ Group Stage Correct Score Predictions

The teams that can solve different tactical puzzles, manage their energy levels and thrive in hostile conditions usually find themselves going deepest into the competition. They are the reigning European champions too, having beaten England in the final two years ago, and will be looking to add to their only World Cup title from 2010. We now live in a world where Brazil, the nation with more World Cups than any other, are considered ‘dark horses’. There is something quite romantic about one of the godfathers of management being appointed by the most famous footballing country to bring home the greatest prize in football for a record-extending sixth time. None of the South American powerhouses have been overly convincing in recent times, but you’d have to guess that if the winner were to come from outside Europe, Argentina and Brazil would be favourites.

Canada and Mexico, the other two co-hosts, are both expected to advance comfortably as well. No team has greater odds of reaching the round of 16 than Argentina. Standing in its way is underdog Cabo Verde, whose spirited journey is expected to come to an emphatic end in the coming days. We’ve lost big names like Uruguay, Scotland and Türkiye, but all the pre-tournament favorites are still alive and kicking in pursuit of glory across the United States, Canada and Mexico. Luis de la Fuente and his squad of stars will want to change that and with Cape Verde, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia to come in Group H this summer, reaching the knockouts is unlikely to be a problem. Spain often have a who’s who of title winners from across Europe, and this summer is no different.

Who is predicted to win the Golden Boot at World Cup 2026?

While favorites are already taking shape, the true outcome will only be decided on the pitch. At this stage, a reasonable projection places France as a potential winner. Their ability to adapt during a match and their strength across all lines make them one of the safest picks in 2026 FIFA World Cup favorites predictions. Still, football rarely follows a script, and a single moment can change everything.

Argentina vs. Cape Verde

He could become only the third manager to win both the UEFA Champions League and the World Cup, after Marcello Lippi (Juventus, Italy) and Del Bosque (Real Madrid, Spain). Messi (13) is one goal ahead of Mbappé, who will surely take possession of the record eventually. But the prospect of two icons duelling to end the tournament in the lead should be absorbing viewing. After watching his team fall agonisingly short on penalties against Argentina in Qatar, he has another chance to become only the second coach to win multiple World Cups (after Vittorio Pozzo in 1934 and 1938). Deschamps’ reign has comprised 175 games, so if they reach the first knockout round, he will have overseen 100 games more than France’s next-longest serving boss (Raymond Domenech, 79).

Tactics and managerial decision-making can be the difference between winning and losing a World Cup game, and there are plenty of skippers in the tournament that have had success coaching around the globe. At age 40, Croatia’s Luka Modrić will be back for a fifth World Cup, assuming he recovers from cheekbone surgery in time. Modrić won the Golden Ball at the 2018 tournament, where Croatia was runner-up to France, and he led the team to a third-place finish in 2022. While the field is a bit more watered-down than in previous iterations of the tournament, it’ll still be a challenge for most teams looking to advance to the Round of 32. Before the biggest FIFA tournament ever kicks off, some predictions are in order. The World Cup draw took place on Dec. 5 and the 48 teams were slotted into 12 groups of four.

During World Cup qualification, you may notice that certain teams have already qualified for the main tournament which may mean that they use some squad players or experiment with their lineup. Furthermore, it can simply lead to a drop in motivation levels, especially if they face a team needing to win to earn a place in the World Cup Finals. With nations playing so infrequently, head-to-head results can have a much larger impact than it does for club teams.

Meanwhile, European soccer insider Martin Green has also revealed picks for Ivory Coast vs. Norway and Sweden vs. France. He’s backing Norway to win behind star striker Erling Haaland and also has France winning comfortably against a European rival. Before locking in your 2026 World Cup picks and other World Cup bets on betting sites like FanDuel, be sure to check out top picks from the team of experts at SportsLine.

Who Will Win the World Cup 2026?

He’s guided Les Bleus to two consecutive finals in FIFA’s quadrennial tournament, winning it all in 2018 and coming up heartbreakingly short four years ago in a penalty-shootout loss to Argentina. These were the knockout stage predictions for TSN expert Dom Farrell. Mexico failed to reach the knockout stage at the 2022 World Cup, having previously seen a Round of 16 exit every tournament from 1994 to 2018.

It can be important to look at historical matchups like England vs Germany for example, and where the results over the years may indicate which team might win the upcoming game. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any intriguing games in the group stage. Here are 10 pivotal matchups you’ll see in group play before 32 teams move on to the knockout rounds. Last time out in 2022, Holland reached the quarter-finals, and a win over Morocco would see them secure a spot in the round of 16 against South Africa and Canada, opening up a route into the final eight of the tournament. Netherlands have reached the most World Cup finals without ever lifting the trophy (three), while Norway are flying having steamrolled their way through the UEFA qualifiers with 37 goals – the most of any team.

Alexi Lalas’ 2026 FIFA World Cup Bracket Prediction

See here for an overview of which teams got luckiest and unluckiest based on where they slotted into the bracket. Get 2–4 premium picks daily with odds averaging 3.05 and our loss replacement guarantee. Our predictor lets you override any forecast and compete with friends. Brazil’s 5-title history matters less than their last 3 tournaments. Top 10 championship probabilities based on FIFA ranking, ELO, and weighted recent form. These four all reached the knockouts and have the profile to go further.

• Then again, Harry Kane scored freely across Bundesliga and Champions League this season, at times playing in a deeper role than usual.
• Fresh off a dominant qualifying cycle, England enter the tournament as one of the top favourites to take home the most prestigious international title.
• Still, they should not be overlooked, as Takefusa Kubo’s creativity and their speed on the counter could make this a difficult contest.
• I would feel more confident in the U.S. going through to the semifinals in that scenario than us against someone like Spain.
• And after Messi finally ended his wait for a World Cup win in Qatar, Portugal are assigned a 6.6% chance of giving Ronaldo his own crowning moment.
• Then, after the group stage concludes and 32 of the tournament’s 48 teams move on to the knockout rounds, users can then pick the results of each of the 31 elimination games.
• Canada reached the men’s World Cup last 16 for the first time after a dramatic stoppage-time victory over South Africa, marking the nation’s first knockout win at the tournament.
• Teams are divided into 12 groups of 4, with the top 2 from each group advancing to a 32-team knockout bracket.
• Modrić won the Golden Ball at the 2018 tournament, where Croatia was runner-up to France, and he led the team to a third-place finish in 2022.
• Predictions cover Final Result, Under/Over, Both Teams to Score, Correct Score, xG, Corners, and Ball Possession.
• Tap a contender to see its group run and knockout path, then lock in your pick.

Fans and analysts are actively discussing World Cup 2026 predictions, trying to understand which team will be ready to go all the way. Simulating, playing Prono, and following live results are all free. Create a free account only when you want to save your bracket or join the prediction league. Build your bracket, play the prediction league, and follow every match — all in one place.

Japan and Sweden are well organized but lack the elite experience needed to challenge the Dutch. I like Japan’s technical depth to edge Sweden for second, but they can still qualify to the next round as a top third-place team, with Tunisia finishing at the bottom. I like Bosnia to top the group, with Switzerland following and Canada advancing as a top third‑place finisher.

Those teams round out the top 10 favourites, with Belgium next with a 1.9% probability. Many members of the Red Devils’ ‘Golden Generation’ remain in the fold, even if the years are starting to catch up with them. But it remains to be seen whether 40-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa will earn a historic call-up. He is the third player – alongside Messi and Ronaldo – able to appear at an unprecedented sixth edition of the World Cup and was selected for the Gold Cup, so watch this space. That previous dry spell ended, of course, in the United States, and Brazil are assigned a 5.6% chance of another stateside triumph. Portugal went out to France at the next stage, as Ronaldo ended the tournament without a goal from 23 shots and 3.6 xG – the second-highest tally at the competition.

Three teams earn qualification for the FIFA World Cup, and two will bank their spots in the play-off tournament, with Canada, Mexico and the USA automatically entering due to being hosts. Six places are up for grabs for CONMEBOL teams, and it is a single-league format that simply decides which top six teams advance to the FIFA World Cup Finals. European teams face off in group stages to earn qualification from the World Cup, in what is considered to be the most competitive qualification process of them all. 16 teams qualify in total from the UEFA qualifiers, with 54 teams split into 12 groups. The top team from each group automatically qualifies for the FIFA World Cup Finals, whilst a 16-team play-off competition then decides the final four spots.

Thomas Tuchel’s England among favourites, but Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal, France, Spain, Brazil and more in the mix; Our writers make their predictions… Austria are narrowly favoured to win, with a 31.2 percent chance of taking all three points, while Algeria are rated at 26.7 percent. Victory would see Algeria win back-to-back World Cup matches for the first time. Portugal are slight favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, winning 51.6 percent of its 25,000 pre-match simulations. Across 25,000 pre-match simulations, Croatia won 56.3 percent of the time.

Get the latest World Cup 2026 predictions and betting tips, powered by our AI algorithm, NT Apex. We have analyzed 64 matches across 48 teams in the World world cup 2026 odds Cup 2026, achieving a best-tip accuracy of over 71.9%. Predictions cover Final Result, Under/Over, Both Teams to Score, Correct Score, xG, Corners, and Ball Possession.

• With Messi complemented by two high-profile strikers still in their prime, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Alvarez, Argentina should not be short of goals.
• But, of course, that previous World Cup dry spell ended with victory in a tournament hosted by the United States.
• Visit our World Cup 2026 predictions today page or our main football predictions page for daily updates throughout the tournament.
• Congo DR and Uzbekistan are unlikely to factor heavily, making this a high‑stakes, two‑team race.
• All eyes, though, will be on teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, who joins Ronaldo and Messi as one of the most searched players in the world.
• However, it probably won’t be enough to prevent the Selecao from edging through to the next round.
• We estimate each team’s probability of winning a given game using a statistical forecast that is based on roster-level data.
• Even at home in the 2022 World Cup, Qatar still couldn’t get a point and they’ll likely struggle to do so again.
• All 72 group stage matches covered with win probability data, banker tips, accumulator strategy, and African kick-off times.
• So, it’s very important to keep up with any injury setbacks for players, or checking whether players will return in time to feature at the tournament.
• Netherlands could meet a Germany or a France in the final eight, and their performances thus far have suggested that a potential challenge for the trophy is possible.
• Top 10 championship probabilities based on FIFA ranking, ELO, and weighted recent form.

Which teams are most likely to reach the final?

Ivory Coast vs Senegal – Senegal’s impressive results in recent tournaments point towards an emphatic victory in this all-African knockout tie. Cristiano Ronaldo’s last chance to lead Portugal to World Cup glory should begin with a relatively straightforward group-stage campaign, even though Colombia possess the quality to make life uncomfortable for the Iberians. However, history is unlikely to repeat itself this time around, at least for the back-to-back World Cup finalists. Tunisia’s unenviable record of failing to advance from the group stage in each of their six previous World Cup campaigns suggests they could struggle to keep pace with the rest of the pack. Before bowing out in the group stages four years ago in Qatar, Mexico had reached the knockout phase at seven consecutive World Cups.

World Cup Day 2 What to Watch: The United States and Canada start their tournaments

With Javier Aguirre at the helm now, they look likely to achieve that feat again. Football’s biggest stage returns this summer as a stacked line-up of global contenders collide in pursuit of 2026 FIFA World Cup glory. Sweden (in 1958) and Czechia (in 1934 and 1962) have both been World Cup finalists previously (the latter as Czechoslovakia) but could still miss the tournament, as could former European champions Denmark. But a stunning defeat to Guatemala, in another shootout, ended Canada’s Gold Cup campaign at the quarter-final stage and brought them crashing down to earth. There will likely be an experienced feel to their squad, led by Fulham striker Raúl Jiménez, who is only eight away from Javier Hernández’s all-time Mexico goal record of 52.

They also won last summer’s Nations League, getting the better of both Germany and Spain in the semi-finals and finals, with largely the same group of players. He’s a winner and with the squad he’s picked, he obviously has a plan. Gareth Southgate did a fabulous job, reaching back-to-back Euros finals with England, but his in-game management was called into question as he failed to get England over the line. That is where Tuchel excels and it could prove to be the difference maker for the Three Lions.

• Six host nations have won the World Cup, most recently France in 1998.
• With 48 teams taking part, there also will be some new names gracing the tournament.
• None of the three co-hosts are favorites, but all three reached the knockouts and all three have a real story to tell.
• The Opta supercomputer gave the reigning world champions a 77.9 percent chance of victory across 25,000 pre-match simulations.
• Bosnia’s effort and organization should not be overlooked, but overcoming a Portuguese side featuring players like Rafael Leao, Vitinha and Bruno Fernandes would require something exceptional.
• Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT is also given great odds of making it through to the next round, sitting at 78.46%.
• Spain will draw heavy support, but France’s experience in semi-finals and finals gives them an edge in pressure moments.
• France and Argentina are the most likely finalists, sitting on opposite halves of the bracket.
• His squad have a 22.1% hope of making the last four, at which stage few would want to face them.
• They are unbeaten in six such matches, scoring at least twice in each of their victories.
• Main Pick – Argentina to Win @ 1/6Argentina have won all five of their recent matches and scored nine goals in three World Cup group fixtures.
• Despite an underwhelming qualifying campaign, Carlo Ancelotti’s charges remain hot favourites to advance as group winners, with the Atlas Lions expected to settle for a runner-up finish.
• Ivory Coast has the physicality and midfield quality to frustrate Norway, but the Scandinavian side’s clinical finishing and attacking firepower could ultimately prove decisive.

Tuesday’s tie, however, will be their first knockout match against an African nation. Looking beyond this match, Germany have a 78.6 percent chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 4.4 percent probability of winning the World Cup. Before locking in any Brazil vs. Japan picks or World Cup 2026 predictions, you need to see what proven soccer expert Jon Eimer has to say. World Cup 2026 Outright – Argentina @ 4/1Argentina sit second in the World Cup 2026 outright winner market at 4/1. As reigning champions with Messi in this sort of form and a full squad at Scaloni’s disposal, they remain a serious title contender.

Despite the promise shown by their young core, the Americans still seem a step behind the world’s true elite. Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun have had moments at the club level, but that’s never been extended to the national team. Argentina, meanwhile, remain built for high-pressure knockout matches and possess an edge in composure and quality. Spain’s track record in major international competitions gives them the clear edge in this scenario. They’ve consistently found ways to advance deep into tournaments, and that experience matters.

Belgium vs. Senegal

• Neymar is no longer the first name on the team sheet but whatever squad the now 34-year-old is part of will still be lifted by his presence.
• Led by Carlo Ancelotti, who gets over the line in knockout games by placing importance on defensive shape but allowing individual quality to shine through.
• But the likes of Enzo Fernández and Julián Alvarez have kicked on in the last two years, and any team which has Messi has a chance of going all the way – a creditable 8.7% chance, according to the supercomputer.
• England’s game control and defense will be hard to beat, but scoring on bigger stages has always been iffy.
• We have mapped out the full World Cup picture, from the group-stage battles through to the knockout phase, outlining how the tournament could unfold from start to finish.
• Cape Verde made the knockout stage in just 33.9% of the sims (the fourth-lowest rate of any team), with Curaçao’s chance being even lower at 18.5% (the second-lowest, only above Haiti’s 15.9%).
• The most likely route to over 3 is Argentina scoring freely rather than a high-scoring exchange, and Scaloni’s side have the firepower to deliver that in a knockout tie against a side with limited attacking threat.
• With Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez capable of picking passes from deep, the spaces behind Cape Verde’s defensive line are likely to be tested repeatedly and at pace from the first whistle.
• Since Spain’s victory in South Africa, La Roja have not made it past the round of 16, exiting at that stage in the last two editions.
• 8 third-placed teams join the 24 automatic qualifiers (1st + 2nd from each of 12 groups), making the R32 path unprecedented.
• Senegal looked sharp in their final win over Iraq but didn’t impress much against Norway ro France.
• Argentina remains a serious contender, especially if key players stay fit.

Even at home in the 2022 World Cup, Qatar still couldn’t get a point and they’ll likely struggle to do so again. Building a perfect bracket may be unrealistic, but identifying where chaos is most likely, and where elite teams will hold firm, is the key to getting ahead. Below, you’ll find a full round-by-round projection, blending safe picks with calculated risks to map out how the 2026 World Cup could unfold. England vs Portugal – Ronaldo may have to take comfort from beating his arch-nemesis in the quarter-finals.

Scorer Market – Lautaro Martinez to Score AnytimeLautaro Martinez has scored once in the tournament and registered five goals across Argentina’s last five matches in all competitions. With Messi drawing defensive attention and Julian Alvarez providing the running, Martinez is regularly afforded space inside the area and is one of the most reliable penalty-box finishers in this Argentina squad. He is worth including in any anytime scorer selections at the best available price. Argentina are expected to win this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tie comfortably, with Messi in prolific form having scored six goals in the group stage and Lautaro Martinez adding further firepower. At 1/6, there is no value in the match result outright, but Argentina to win and over 2.5 goals at the best available price represents the most sensible angle in a game that has all the hallmarks of a heavy home-side victory.

Cape Verde are not believed to have significant injury concerns heading into this fixture. Goalkeeper Vozinha, a veteran of 86 caps, has been the experienced anchor behind the defensive shape that earned their group stage draws. Logan Costa provides quality at centre-back, while Ryan Mendes, Cape Verde’s all-time leading scorer, remains their most experienced attacking threat. Jamiro Monteiro and Garry Rodrigues add craft in midfield, and manager Aguas is expected to name a similar side to the one that earned three draws through the group phase. But Argentina go into 2026 with momentum, a settled spine, and the small matter of Lionel Messi possibly playing one last World Cup at 39.

Played every four years, teams battle it out for the Jules Rimet trophy and to have their name etched in history as World Cup winners. They are in an evenly matched pool, and while seen as the least likely team to win Group D, they still have a decent 17.9% hope of topping the table. The Socceroos are more likely than not to progress to the knockouts (59.2%) and have a 26.3% chance of reaching the last 16 to match their best-ever performance. Spain enter as a major tournament favorite, led by superstar Lamine Yamal. However, the group won’t be straightforward against an experienced Uruguay side that only allowed 12 goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualification games. The top spot could come down to goal difference, with both teams likely taking advantage of Cape Verde.

David Raya, Mikel Merino and Martin Zubimendi are Premier League champions and Champions League runners-up. There are eight LaLiga winners from Barcelona – but, tellingly, none from Real Madrid. If you’re after a free-flowing side, stick to the Spains of this world. Led by Carlo Ancelotti, who gets over the line in knockout games by placing importance on defensive shape but allowing individual quality to shine through. Colombia were victorious in 23.9 percent of simulations, while the draw was given a 25.2 percent probability. A point would be enough for Colombia to secure the top spot in Group K.

Norway have nothing to lose and can hurt Brazil, but they have a defence that Vinicius and company can exploit enough times to progress. These two traditional European heavyweights have a rich shared history on the international stage. Right now, though, France appears to have the edge in most departments.

Ecuador shocked already-qualified Germany to reach this phase, but expect Javier Aguirre’s men to make it four wins out of four. There have also been stirring underdog stories, with minnow Cape Verde qualifying as Group H runners-up behind European champions Spain, and Iran similarly going through the round-robin phase undefeated against the odds. All the tournament favorites have come through the group stage largely unscathed.

Croatia vs Spain – Croatia’s remarkable tournament experience and resilience could make this a tightly contested encounter. However, Spain’s technical quality and squad depth should ultimately tip the balance in their favour. Netherlands vs Morocco – Even though the odds may be stacked against them, Morocco’s knack for upsetting elite opposition could produce the first major shock of the tournament. Despite beating Argentina in the 2022 group stage, Saudi Arabia may once again fall short of a top-two finish, which looks reserved for Uruguay.

48 teams, 104 matches across 16 host cities in the United States, Canada and Mexico — sharp, data-driven forecasts and betting tips for every fixture, from the group stage to the final. We estimate each team’s chances by simulating the entire World Cup tournament thousands of times and counting how often a team wins the group, gets second, third and so on. We estimate each team’s probability of winning a given game using a statistical forecast that is based on roster-level data. Our initial forecasts are based on a best guess of the starting lineups of all 48 squads; we’ll update these estimates if there are prominent injuries.

FIFA World Cup 2026 Simulator

It is Argentina who go into the World Cup as defending champions after Lionel Messi helped to guide La Albiceleste to a famous triumph in Qatar towards the end of 2022. With one of the most dramatic club seasons in recent memory only just behind us, the stakes are about to get even higher, with the biggest prize in football up for grabs at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Lionel Messi, finally crowned world champion, was named Player of the Tournament in what many consider the greatest World Cup final ever played.